June 3, 2025 | News
Investing Expeditions | The Ripple Effects of Trade Uncertainty
William Blair News
General William Blair News
Key Takeaways
- Trade and monetary policy uncertainty is prompting caution across EMs, particularly in Mexico’s industrial real estate sector.
- Despite regional challenges, select sectors—such as South American airlines—are demonstrating resilience.
- In Panama and El Salvador, improving fiscal prospects and strong local sentiment, respectively, offer reasons for cautious optimism.
- India’s ongoing infrastructure build-out—including airport, metro, and road projects—signals strong domestic growth potential as companies continue investing in capacity expansion.
Research trips are an integral component of our active, fundamental investment process. Our investment teams meet with different companies, attend conferences, and travel to new markets around the world, gaining insights for our clients and a deeper understanding of potential investments.
Below, we highlight some of the research trips our emerging markets (EM) debt team has taken in 2025 so far.
EM Corporate Debt: The Ripple Effects of Trade Uncertainty
Anezina Mytilinaiou, CFA, a senior corporate credit analyst, attended the JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Corporate Conference in Miami, Florida.
At the conference, “uncertainty around trade policies, and how that extends to monetary policy, was a central point of discussion,” says Anezina.
In Mexico, for instance, industrial real estate investment has slowed materially in recent quarters as businesses wait for greater clarity.
And elsewhere in Latin America, industry-specific dynamics are shaping the outlook.
Anezina learned that a major Brazilian meat producer has reported tightening cattle supply in both Brazil and the United States, while demand continues to rise—a combination that may sustain elevated beef prices.
Meanwhile, South American airlines have offered a more optimistic picture: competition remains healthy, demand is steady, and both operational and financial performance are proving resilient, even amid currency volatility.
Uncertainty around trade policies, and how that extends to monetary policy, was a central point of discussion.
Opportunities in Latin America
Jared Lou, CFA, a portfolio manager on our EM debt team, traveled to Panama, El Salvador, and Ecuador. He believes each one of these countries is facing unique challenges.
“In the case of Ecuador, there’s a very uncertain electoral outcome. However, we’re becoming more optimistic on the bonds as we believe there’s too much pessimism priced into what will be a very tight election,” says Jared.
For Panama, “we’re coming away slightly more optimistic as we see more paths forward to improve fundamentals in terms of fiscal and growth.”
“And lastly, in El Salvador, this is arguably the most bullish sentiment we’ve seen from locals in the last 10 years or so. However, we think most of the good news is already in the price of the bonds,” he concludes.
In El Salvador, this is arguably the most bullish sentiment we’ve seen from locals in the last 10 years.
Key Sectors Shaping India’s Economy
While on a research trip to Mumbai and New Delhi, India, Alexandra Symeonidi, CFA, a senior corporate credit and sustainability analyst on our EM debt team, met with several companies from the infrastructure, metals and mining, and renewable energy sectors.
She learned that many companies are still investing in capacity expansion. “We saw a lot of infrastructure projects, including airport expansion, metro, roads, and bridges, shaping India’s future domestic economy,” says Alexandra.
In addition, “renewable-energy-generation companies are now focusing on more complex projects like energy storage or wind/solar hybrids due to better profitability prospects,” while metals and mining companies have been impacted by low steel prices, a result of very competitive Chinese imports.