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India
India’s Transformation: Key Takeaways

GLOBAL EQUITY

  • Favorable demographics, low debt, and rising incomes support long-term consumption growth.
  • Sectors such as financial services, technology, and clean energy are emerging as key beneficiaries of this policy-driven momentum.


 

India’s economic transformation continues to accelerate, with remarkable progress in both physical and digital infrastructure. These developments are reshaping how consumers live, work, and shop, and nowhere is this more visible than in the rise of quick commerce.

The rapid growth of this model—think delivery of groceries or everyday essentials in as little as 10 minutes—is fueled by several unique advantages in India. A massive smartphone user base and the widespread adoption of digital payments have helped to create a frictionless foundation for e-commerce. In addition, dense urban centers make ultra-fast delivery logistics viable.

Both local startups and global players are racing to capture this opportunity, investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI)-driven logistics, micro-warehousing, and last-mile delivery solutions. While still a young industry, quick commerce is scaling at a pace few markets can match. We believe this underscores India’s role as a launchpad for digital-first consumer innovation.

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India’s Power Play

Making the growth case for India involves answering one key question: How can India differentiate itself from China? In this episode of The Active Share, Hugo and Raghuram Rajan, a professor of finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, discuss what it would take for India to evolve into a global economic powerhouse.

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India's Wake-Up Call

Making the growth case for India involves answering one key question: How can India differentiate itself from China? In this episode of The Active Share, Hugo and Raghuram Rajan, a professor of finance at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, discuss what it would take for India to evolve into a global economic powerhouse.

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Emerging Markets Equity 2025: Quality as the Path to Growth

We believe the underlying case for emerging markets equity is strong, and explore three key themes that highlight the breadth of opportunity in the asset class.

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China
Chinese Equities: Key Takeaways

GLOBAL EQUITY

  • Targeted monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and infrastructure investment continue to provide a cushion against cyclical headwinds.
  • The country’s export destination has shifted, and demand is now primarily from the Global South.
  • Investment in technological self-sufficiency could serve as a long-term growth driver. 
China Is Closing the Innovation Gap in Key Emerging Technologies

 

Despite ongoing challenges from property-market weakness and weakened consumer confidence, the Chinese government has demonstrated a commitment and ability to support the economy via monetary, fiscal, and policy measures.

While the escalation of the U.S.-China trade conflict has raised concerns about growth, China’s exports have shifted meaningfully: They are increasingly diversified and now focus on other emerging markets (EMs), with nearly half going to the southern hemisphere. This diversification should help buffer the Chinese economy from U.S. tariffs.

At the same time, China is reprioritizing domestic consumption and accelerating investment in technological innovation. Advances in areas such as natural language processing, quantum computing, and drone technology, as well as swarming and collaborative robotics, underscore China’s ambition to move up the value chain and build self-sufficiency in critical technologies.

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China: Stimulus and Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Investment Environment

China’s equity markets performed relatively well in 2024 but remain policy-driven and somewhat directionless as investors await further potential stimulus announcements from the government.
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Trade Turbulence Challenges EMs

U.S. trade policies have created challenges for some emerging markets, but others, such as India and Taiwan, may be more insulated.
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Global Equity Team Outlook: The Shifting Balance of Power

Policy uncertainty weighed heavily on global markets in the first quarter of 2025, triggering a sharp rotation from momentum and growth equities into value equities—fueled in part by concerns about global growth and the emergence of DeepSeek.
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Europe
European Defense: Key Takeaways

GLOBAL EQUITY

  • A weakened Ukraine could leave the European Union (EU) exposed, forcing an urgent rearmament to deter Russian aggression.
  • We believe emerging national defense champions and innovators are well positioned to help solve shortages, standardization gaps, and next-generation defense needs.
  • Policy support and strong frontline demand are also driving investment opportunities, though fiscal limits and execution risks remain. 
Weapon Systems in The EU Versus United States

 

With U.S. defense guarantees less reliable and Russia’s threat rising, EU member states have been rapidly investing in their militaries after decades of underspending.

We believe Europe’s private sector will play a critical role in the continent’s rearmament. There is policy support for this across Europe, and EU nations have already committed to rapidly increasing defense spending.

But Europe’s rearmament faces three main hurdles: understocked militaries, fragmented equipment systems, and the need to keep pace with rapid advances in defense technology (including drones, which are reshaping modern warfare).

Meeting these challenges will require scale, standardization, and innovation. We believe the most compelling investment opportunities are companies that are transforming from narrowly focused specialists into multi-faceted national champions and small-cap innovators developing frontier technologies. 

Geography and fiscal capacity also matters. Countries that are closer to Russia face a more imminent threat and have acted accordingly, and much of the EU simply does not have the funds to reach desired spending targets.

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Mapping the Future of EU Defense Spending 

Over the next five years, we believe select European defense stocks will create value for both their shareholders and EU stakeholders.

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Building Europe’s Defense Backbone

On the first episode of SuiteTalk, an Active Share series that taps into the minds of top business leaders, host Hugo Scott-Gall sits down with Daniel Ljunggren, CEO of MilDef, a provider of tactical information technology (IT).
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Change and Opportunity in Europe’s Growth Markets

Jayesh Kannan, CFA, speaks to us from Lithuania, where he meets with companies who have embraced technological innovation.
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Africa
African Debt: Key Takeaways

EMERGING MARKETS DEBT

  • African issuers are under-represented in global bond indices, meaning even small allocations can enhance portfolio diversification.
  • Competitive currency valuations and tighter monetary policy across key African markets have boosted yields.
  • Political and economic risks remain, but ongoing reforms, stronger debt management, and growing foreign investor participation support attractive risk-adjusted returns. 
Nigeria and Egypt Exchange Rates

 

While political volatility, currency fluctuations, and uneven economic recovery have created periods of heightened volatility in Africa, we believe the continent offers compelling debt opportunities, thanks to improving macroeconomic fundamentals, favorable demographics, and increasing investor interest in diversification outside traditional emerging markets (EMs).

Some countries—including Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana—have benefited from higher commodity prices, stronger fiscal management, and structural reforms aimed at enhancing transparency and governance.

In addition, global macroeconomic pressures and reforms supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have prompted some African countries to abandon unsustainable currency pegs and managed exchange rates, resulting in more competitively valued currencies. This is most notable in Nigeria and Egypt. At the same time, monetary policy tightening and sharp interest-rate hikes have bolstered yields.

As governments implement reforms, attract foreign investment, and strengthen debt management practices, we believe select African countries have the potential to deliver strong risk-adjusted returns for investors willing to navigate challenges.

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Disruption Creates Opportunity in Emerging Markets Debt

Tariff-driven volatility shook markets in the second quarter, but we see renewed value in emerging markets debt. We break down our largest hard-currency positions by beta bucket to show where we’re finding opportunity.
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Outlook 2025: Emerging Markets Debt in an Evolving World

We expect a favorable market environment for emerging markets debt in 2025 and believe that higher volatility induced by political noise could create opportunities for long-term investors.

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Is Angola Ready to Re-engage with the IMF?

Dan Wood speaks to us from Angola, where he seeks to determine if the country is ready to engage with the IMF and whether oil production and privatization will pick up.
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Our active ownership culture creates long-term client relationships by aligning with your interests and helping you achieve successful investment outcomes. Contact us to learn how we can partner with you.
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Our active ownership culture creates long-term client relationships by aligning with your interests and helping you achieve successful investment outcomes. Contact us to learn how we can partner with you.
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