September 17, 2020 | Emerging Markets Debt
The Case for Local Currency Emerging Markets Debt

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https://youtu.be/4bDf9F4jAiM?si=FKggAV3XpheDds9C
Our expectation is for emerging markets debt issues in local currency to outperform other fixed-income asset classes in coming quarters, and several factors underpin this positive forecast.
Transcript
Investors have two primary options when it comes to investing in emerging markets sovereign debt. They can choose dollar-denominated bonds or those that are issued directly in the local currencies of EM countries.
Local currency sovereign bonds give investors an avenue to diversify their holdings away from the U.S. dollar and also to benefit from potentially stronger economic growth in emerging markets.
Our expectation is for local markets to outperform other fixed-income asset classes in coming quarters. Several factors underpin this positive forecast.
First, performance of local currency sovereign bonds in recent years has been hurt by weaker EM effects, but we believe many of the headwinds that have held back emerging market currencies should fade as the U.S. dollar faces additional downward pressure.
Second, we have been encouraged by positive macro trends in the most recent EM data. Emerging market GDP is forecast to recover quickly over the next 18 months, while developed markets could still face a flatter and more prolonged recovery curve.
Third, we expect a combination of positive real interest rates, attractive valuations, and stable-to-improving fundamentals to drive capital flows into local markets.
We believe that the combination of these factors make the outlook particularly positive on a relative basis, when comparing emerging markets debt with developed market alternatives.
Filmed August 2020
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the speaker(s) as of the date of publication, are subject to change without notice as economic and market conditions dictate, and may not reflect the views and opinions of other investment teams within William Blair. Factual information has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. This material may include estimates, outlooks, projections, and other forward-looking statements. Due to a variety of factors, actual events may differ significantly from those presented. This video has been provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular strategy or investment product, or as an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Investment advice and recommendations can be provided only after careful consideration of an investor’s objectives, guidelines, and restrictions. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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